Vol. 7 є 5, 2017 p 36-41

Pages

Article name, authors, abstract and keyword

36-41

Development of a new methodical approach to predicting field pipeline failures

Larisa P. Khudyakova a, Alexander A. Shestakov a

a STC Transneft R&D, 144/3 Oktyabrya prospect, 450055, Ufa, Bashkortostan, Russian Federation

https://doi.org/10.28999/2541-9595-2017-7-5-36-41

Abstract: The authors disclose a methodical approach for predicting failures of field pipelines based on an in-depth statistical analysis of the surface corrosion relief of the metal coupons exposed in the operating media and by using the depth distribution law for corrosion pits. The extreme values of local corrosion provide the corrosion rate and the time before rupture based on the pipeline operating parameters, which will be the time before a failure occurs. The obtained sample of extreme values is processed statistically to find the most appropriate distribution and to calculate its parameters.

Keywords: prediction of pipeline failures, corrosion, corrosion coupons, distribution of corrosion damage

Reference for citing:
Khudyakova L. P., Shestakov A. A. Development of a new methodical approach to predicting field pipeline failures. Naukatekhnol. truboprov. transp. neftiinefteprod. = Science & Technologies: Oil and Oil Products Pipeline Transportation. 2017;7(5):36Ц41.

References:
[1] Method of defining the remaining lifetime of industrial facilities: patent 2502974 Rus. Federation; No. 2012129075/28: appl. 10.06.2012; publ. 27.12.2013. Bul. No. 36. (In Russ.)
[2] Noor N. M., Yahaya N. Extreme Growth Behaviour of Corrosion Pit in Hydrocarbon Pipeline: proceedings of 2nd Regional Engineering Conference (EnCon 2008). 2008 December 18Ц19. Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia.
[3] Nor S. H. M., Noor N. M., Yahaya N., Othman S. R. A Probabilistic Modelling of Corrosion Growth In Marine Ballast Tank for Sustainable Maintenance Scheme: proceedings of 8th UMT International Symposium on Sustainability Science and Management (UMTAS); 2009 May 3Ц4; Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia.
[4] Noor N. M., Yahaya N. Analytical Study of Extreme Growth of Metal Loss in Export Pipelines: proceeding of International Conference On Science & Technology (ICSTIE); 2008 Dec 12Ц13; Pulau Pinang, Malaysia.
[5] Noor N. M. Statistical Modelling of Corrosion Growth in Marine Environment. Technical Report; January 2015.
[6] Nazarenko K. M. Mathematical simulation and methods of estimating the investments to high volatility financial assets [dissertation]. Moscow (M); 2009. 211 p. (In Russ.)
[7] Mao D. Bayesian modeling of pitting corrosion in steam generators. University of Waterloo (Canada), ProQuest, UMI Dissertations Publishing, 2007.
[8] Paik J. K., Thayamballi ј.  ., Park Y. I., Hwang J. S. A time-dependent corrosion wastage model for seawater ballast tank structures of ships. Corrosion Science. 2004;46(2):471Ц486.
[9] Khan G., Shapiro S. Statistical models in engineering problems. Moscow (M): Mir; 1969.
[10] Shestakov A. A., Khudyakova L. P. Scale factor for the corrosion predicting. Problems and methods for ensuring the reliability and safety of transportation system of oil, gas and petroleum products: proceedings of the international science practical conference. 2012; Ufa, Russia. (In Russ.)
[11] Hauschild W., Mosch V. Statistics for electricians in application to the high-voltage technology. Leningrad (L): Energoatomizdat; 1989. 312 p. (In Russ.)
[12] Mannalov R. G. Evaluation of operational safety of chemical equipment elements when changing their scale. Chemical and oil engineering. 1984;(3):30Ц32. (In Russ.)
[13] Mannalov R. G. Statistical patterns of corrosion damage of metal surfaces. Reliability and quality control. 1988;(9):48Ц52. (In Russ.)
[14] Vajo J. J., Wei R., Phelps A. C., Reiner L., Herrera G. A., Cervantes O., Gidanian D., Bavarian B., Kappes C. M. Application of extreme value analysis to crevice corrosion. Corrosion Science. 2003;45(3):497Ц509.
[15] Kleiner Y., Rajani B. B. Characterization of external corrosion pits in ductile iron pipes: proceedings of the conference on probabilistic methodologies in water and wastewater engineering (in Honour of Prof. Barry Adams); 2011 Sep 23Ц24; Toronto, Canada.
[16] Zheng R., Carmeliet J. E., Hens H., Bogaerts W. F. Method to Determine Number and Size of Samples Taken from Zinc Roof to Analyze Pitting Corrosion: proceeding of ASHRAE (American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air Conditioning Engineers) conference; 2001. [17] Valor A., Caleyo F., Alfonso L., Velázquez J. C., Hallen J. M. Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2013; 2013.
[18] Valor A., Caleyo F., Alfonso L., Velázquez J. C., Hallen J. M. Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2013; 2013.
[19] Glegola M. Extreme value analysis of corrosion data // Master Thesis. Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands 2007.
[20] Matveevsky V. R. Reliability of engineering systems. Moscow (M): Moscow State Institute of Electronics and Mathematics; 2002. 113 p. (In Russ.)

ѕјќ